CLASH: Musharraf is/is not The Man

This week Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf has been aggressively hitting the U.S. talk show circuit to promote his new memoirs, aptly titled In the Line of Fire. His book promotion tour dovetails with an official visit to the United States, both for the U.N. General Assembly and talks with President Bush and Afghan President Karzai. I saw Musharraf’s spirited performance on Charlie Rose for the full hour, and even – to my surprise – on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart.

The book, which I haven’t read yet, covers familiar ground regarding Pakistan’s role in the War on Terror since 9/11, as well as Musharraf’s path to power and his role as a leading bulwark against Islamic extremism. Musharraf prides himself on being an ‘enlightened moderate” in a Muslim World dim with extremism, intolerance, and violence. In his interviews, Musharraf promotes Pakistan’s role in the War on Terror as much as his own contribution to the battle with extremism, in the service of Pakistan’s national goals.

In Pakistan, Musharraf’s book tour is raising eyebrows. Already facing mounting domestic opposition, the tour adds fuel to the fire of Musharraf’s critics. First, the idea of a head of state writing memoirs while in office is unconventional, if not completely wrongheaded. It opens the writer to all kinds of criticism and rebuttal, and reduces his options to negotiate policies in the here and now. Second, Pakistanis rightly question how their president, who is deeply involved with all matters of statecraft, found the time to author or even direct the ghost writing of his memoirs. Third, many figures mentioned in the book contest Musharraf’s portrayal of historical events. The rebuttals coming from Armitage to Vajpayee are an embarrassment to the president, but worse, to the office which he holds. Even the New York Times questioned the accuracy of minor claims and facts in the book. Fourth, Pakistanis are outraged that the President has used a taxpayer-funded state visit to the United States to promote his book, which is a means of personal promotion and enrichment as much as it is public diplomacy. The president intends to donate part of the proceeds of the book to charity, possibly through a yet-to-be created foundation managed by his wife, for yet-to-be-determined causes (women’s causes and poverty alleviation were mentioned). Whatever the final destination of the proceeds, the allocation and intended distribution is not transparent, which legitimates the cause for concern. Even the Pakistani taxman has an interest in seeing how the book income is declared.

But the far bigger problem, in my view, is Musharraf’s positioning as the Man of the Hour in the Muslim world. At a CFR press event, Musharraf was received with a standing ovation and heaps of praise. He highlighted the importance of his book in no uncertain terms:

"My autobiography is my contribution to the history of our era. It is also of course my own story, a life where I look back and see the contours of an eventful, turbulent path with both luck and destiny playing leading roles….My autobiography is a window into contemporary Pakistan and my role in reshaping it…I want the world to know the truth…What happens in Pakistan socially, politically and economically in the coming years, will not only help decide the outcome of the global war on terror, but will also shape what the future will look like for both Islam and the West. (source: Dawn Newspaper)

Over the years, the West has needed Muslim heroes who could be tough on communism / backwardness / extremism / fundamentalism / terror. Perhaps this pattern originates from the colonial era, when the British sought local Big Men around the empire through whom they could rule indirectly. In recent times, many a Muslim leader has stepped forward to be the West’s Man, from the Shah of Iran (against backwardness and for Israel) to Saddam Hussain (against Khomeinism) to Zia-ul- Haq (against communism). Few of these men succeeded, either in executing good policies or winning favor at home. In closely associating policy successes with the destiny of One Man, one hero, Western policymakers and opinion leaders have consistently bet on bad horses. Worse, they have often done so at the expense of local institutional development, democratization, and even basic good governance. For example, we know that the same extremists Musharraf now confronts in Pakistan are a direct result of the Islamization of that country directed by Gen Zia in the 1980s, who at that time was The Man against Communism. Each time, policymakers have traded off one evil in favor of another, which comes back to haunt them with dire consequences.

We need to break out of the convenient cycle of backing individuals rather than principles. This is not just a matter of idealism, but of cold, hard realistic calculus. Getting it wrong, as we learned with post-Pahlavi Iran, has profound consequences (e.g. inheriting all the Big Men’s enemies). The fact that Musharraf, one person, can credibly claim to be a critical factor in the War on Terror and the clash of civilizations is a testament to how poorly the West’s avowed push for democratization. Again, it’s a case of receive now, pay later. This is precisely the historic posture that the Bush administration claims to have abandoned.

In some ways, Musharraf has become Pakistan’s Gorbachev. He may be onto a good thing, but lacks the power or legitimacy to execute ambitious, transformative goals. He is celebrated in London and New York, but increasingly disliked, even hated, at home. Therefore, Western policymakers should be cautious.We should do less to celebrate and pump up the Man, and more to work for The Cause, even if it means some painful trade-offs and long term investments in Muslim societies and their future. For Pakistan, it means less Musharraf and more democracy. We need less Big Men and more of the hard work building authentic, sustainable reform in many parts of the Muslim world. There is no one magic bullet, despite what this administration believes about democratization. There are a lot of cumulative, re-inforcing investments that need to be made. And there is no one magic Man, no matter how capable, who can do the job. Not even Musharraf, the Muslim world’s latest man of the Hour.